W E Pete Peterson

A Thought on Faith, Hope, and Charity

2011-08-01T11:08:00.000-06:00

In our little MTC branch of 40 to 50 missionaries (The Missionary Training Center of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints), districts of 8 to 12 missionaries would rotate in and be with us for almost 9 weeks. To make things easier for us in the branch presidency, we would go through a cycle of 7 subjects for our talks in our Sacrament Meetings. With 7 topics, the missionaries never heard the same sermon twice. (We didn’t need 9, because during the 9 Sundays we would have at least two Fast and Testimony Meetings.) The topics were very basic—faith, repentance, baptism, the Holy Ghost, etc.

Although it would have been easier, I couldn’t give the same talk over and over again. If I didn’t prepare something new, I would get bored listening to myself. This meant I spent a lot of time thinking about and studying the same basics of the gospel over and over again.

For reference material we were allowed to use only the scriptures, Preach My Gospel (the missionary manual of the church) words of the living prophets (recent conference talks), and our personal experiences. Speculations, interesting tangents, and interesting ideas of non-prophets (like C. S. Lewis, for example) were forbidden. We taught Christ’s basic doctrine, since that was what the missionaries were learning to teach.

One of the topics was “Hope.” As I did my research, one of my sources was President Uchtdorf’s October 2008 conference address “The Infinite Power of Hope.” In the talk he said, "Hope is one leg of a three-legged stool, together with faith and charity. These three stabilize our lives regardless of the rough or uneven surfaces we might encounter at the time.”

Each time I prepared my talk (and also when preparing talks on faith or charity) I would come back to this statement and try to figure out how faith, hope, and charity fit together to create a stable, three-legged stool. I’m sure there are many good answers, but I offer my conclusion. It will take me a few paragraphs to explain.

Faith is a principle of action and power. When someone disagrees with the statement that “faith without works is dead,” I think that person misses the point of the scripture. The verse is not about faith versus works, or grace versus trying to earn our salvation. I think the statement tries to teach us that having faith and doing nothing is not faith. If we have faith, we are faithful. If we have faith, we act and we do. If we have faith in Christ, we try to be like him and to be faithful to his teachings.

Hope is about emotions and feelings. If we have hope, we are hopeful. We have confidence and enthusiasm. If our hope is centered in Christ, we have confidence in his Atonement, and we trust that eventually everything will work out for the best.

Charity is the pure love of Christ. If we have charity, we love unselfishly. It is never about what we need or want. We love selflessly, expecting nothing in return, and love as Christ would love.

So, how do the three fit together? Let’s assume that we feel prompted to visit someone who is sick. If we follow this prompting with faith, we go. Perhaps we grumble to ourselves that we are inconvenienced or that we won’t do any good, but we go.

If we have hope, we go with enthusiasm and confidence. Perhaps we won’t be able to do any good, but still we go with a smile and a happy heart. Perhaps we go to feel better about ourselves or to finish an item on our to-do list, but we go cheerfully.

Finally, if we have charity, we go with no thought for ourselves. We try to see the person as Christ would. Our concern is for that person, and our only desire is help in whatever way we can.

In the case of a missionary, if he knocks on a door, he shows faith. If she has a smile on her face when the door opens, she demonstrates hope. If the concern is only for the person opening the door, and how he or she might help that person, then he or she does it with love. He or she is not thinking about checking a box or meeting a goal.

If we have faith, we go. If we have hope, we go cheerfully. If we have charity, we go for the right reasons. These are my thoughts on the three-legged stool which is stable, even when the surface is rough or uneven. Life is much better when we do, when we do it cheerfully, and when we do it unselfishly.

NCIS and Alzheimer's Disease

2011-01-20T16:41:00.002-07:00

My favorite TV show by far is NCIS. (For those of you surprised by this, I admit to liking Glenn Beck a lot, but not as much as NCIS.) I didn’t start watching NCIS until the 6th season. I started by watching the older shows on a USA Network NCIS marathon on a vacation and was hooked immediately. NCIS stands for Naval Criminal Investigative Service, and the show solves crimes related to the Navy or Marines.

This week’s episode featured Bob Newhart as a retired NCIS Medical Examiner. His character suffers from Alzheimer’s disease (AD), and he made a visit to his old NCIS office in Washington, DC. While there he became confused. Once the staff solved this week’s crime, they helped Bob Newhart remember his time at NCIS by showing him a video of the people he helped during his career.

Since my dad has AD, the episode hit very close to home. Recently I put together a video for of our 2010 Thanksgiving dinner. I made sure to take a short clip of each of my children, each of their spouses, and each of their children. I edited the whole thing down to 20 minutes and added labels for each person. Like the NCIS episode, I thought I could help my dad remember and get to know his children and grandchildren. Unlike the NCIS episode, when I showed my dad the video, he couldn’t concentrate on it enough to watch it. A little too much of him had already slipped away.

His AD started with what seemed like normal senior forgetfulness. We realized something was wrong, when he would ask the same question more than once or make the same statement more than once. At first he would remember that he had already asked that question. Once he was diagnosed with AD, he knew enough to be depressed and frustrated.

We try to visit my folks every two or three months. Living with him everyday, my stepmom doesn’t notice the changes as much as we do. We notice with each visit that he has lost interest is something he used to like and has lost a skill he used to have.

In the early stage of AD he still liked the news and sports. Slowly he has lost interest in both. He would try to follow and participate in conversations. Now he mostly listens. He still knows his wife, his dog, his children, and his brothers and sisters, but he can’t remember much about them. He is always surprised to learn we have six children and that they are all married with children. Lately he has been discouraged with me when he rediscovers that I don’t have a job.

From what little we knew about AD, we expected him to lose things, to wander around looking for things, and to become confused at times. This seems to happen to all of us at one time or another. What I didn’t understand or expect was that so many other things would be erased from his memory.

We notice especially how he loses skills one by one. Throughout his life he could fix anything and could do just about anything with wood, glass, or electronics. On one visit we noticed he stopped fixing things. For example, a door latch needed oil, but he couldn’t remember to do it or how to do it. On another visit we saw that he couldn’t remember how to work the thermostat. This last visit he had forgotten how to shave. He can still read, but he doesn’t, because he can’t hold on to the context. Now when he looks at a tool, he can’t remember why or how he would use it.

I finally bought a couple of AD books so I would know what to expect. It’s not good. Far from just losing short-term memory or becoming confused more often, AD erases everything. In the end a person has no skills at all, and may even lose the ability to talk and and to walk.

It would be so nice if life were like a TV show and a short video would bring everything back to mind. It is sad, but not every problem can be solved in 42 minutes. Pete

Forget Bond Funds

2010-09-21T15:49:00.000-06:00

I guess I’m mostly finished with all the talk of the end of our financial world, so I’ll summarize.

During periods of deflation, especially with increasing FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt), you want to be in cash. During times of low inflation and decreasing FUD, you might want to carefully be in stocks. During times of high inflation, especially with increasing FUD, you want to own stuff.

Cash means currency (the US dollar or something stronger), bank certificates of deposit (because they have very small penalties if you cash them in early), very short term bonds (US treasury bonds and perhaps the municipal bonds of states in good financial shape), and money market funds.

Be careful not to think of bond funds, especially medium or long-term bond funds as cash. The value of bonds goes down when interest rates go up. With interest rates at historical lows, you don’t want to own bond funds or long-term bonds. (I’m trying not to give advice, but, if you are in an intermediate to long-term bond fund or treasuries due in 5 to 30 years, get out quickly.)

If your 401K lets you choose between a stock fund, a bond fund, and a money market fund, then right now you probably want to be in the money market fund. If you think the US economy is improving or showing signs of improvement, then you’d want to choose a stock fund. If you think interest rates are going down, then, and only then, would you choose the bond fund.

So, for now, forget bond funds. Pete

We know how this ends. Part 4

2010-08-23T15:32:00.000-06:00

Deflation means the value of stuff goes down (deflates) and the value of money goes up. Especially when people are fearful, they want to hang on to their money. Because money is dear, the demand for the stuff money buys goes down. When the demand for stuff goes down, the prices drift down. In other words, with deflation you can buy more stuff for the same amount of money. For example, the Deseret News recently published a price comparison of various consumer goods. The cost of a grocery cart of 15 items was $119.74 this time last year and only $116.08 this year. Money was worth more at the grocery store this year.

Inflation means the value of stuff goes up (inflates) and the value of money goes down. In other words, money buys less and less stuff. The same grocery cart of 15 items might cost $125.00 after a year of inflation. For most of us, inflation is what we know. When I was a child, a candy bar was a nickel. When I was a teenager, a Taco Bell burrito was 19 cents. Our first home was only $36,000, and we sold it a year later for $39,000.

During times of deflation, cash is your friend and debt is your enemy. You don’t want to owe money in times of deflation, because it costs more and more to repay a loan. During times of inflation, cash is better spent or invested in stuff and debts are generally easier and easier to pay down.

These definitions suggest you would want to own money (currency, treasury bonds, and government-insured bank CDs) during times of deflation, and own stuff during times of inflation. “Stuff” is things that are not measured in dollars, like real estate (acres or square feet), precious metals (ounces or bars), wheat (bushels), fuel (gallons, barrels, or BTUs), or stock (shares in a company).

Fear, uncertainty, and doubt complicate this simple picture. Stocks in general do poorly when FUD is high, no matter the inflation rate. When FUD is high precious metals may behave more like currencies, going up when logic suggests they should go down.

In summary, during times of deflation you want to own money and be free of debt, especially high-interest debt. During times of low-to-moderate inflation, you want to own stuff. If FUD is low, you could include stocks in your list of stuff. If FUD is high, you almost always don’t want stocks. During times of hyper-inflation, when FUD is bound to be high, you want to own stuff that people really need, like food, fuel, water and dry goods. Pete

We know how this ends. Part 3

2010-08-10T17:06:00.000-06:00

Freedom Fest, mentioned in a previous post, got me thinking about scenarios. As I understand it, “scenario” comes from the Italian word for scenery and refers to an imagined or projected sequence of events. So, while I’m thinking about how to survive between now and the end of the world, I’m imagining a few scenarios.
In these imaginings, I assume as true the following:

1) The USA is already spending much more money that it takes in. In fact, about 30 cents of every dollar we spend right now is borrowed.

2) The USA has made a lot of promises to pay for things without knowing how we will pay for them. These promises are the so-called “unfunded liabilities” for social security, healthcare, government-guaranteed mortgages, and government-guaranteed pensions.

3) Higher tax rates, which is viewed by some as a way of getting out of this mess, leads to lower tax revenues. As tax rates go up, taxpayers work harder to lower their taxes, mostly by using government-approved loopholes. As taxes go up, GDP tends to go down, which means the higher tax rates are offset by lower earnings.

4) Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) are bad for business. The many new regulations and pending tax hikes are producing more and more FUD.

To these assumptions we have to consider a lot of variables. How many seats will conservatives win in congress in November? Will a lame duck congress pass even more regulations and tax hikes? Will congress repeal Obamacare or the latest financial reform bill? Will the courts find Obamacare unconstitutional? Will President Obama win re-election? When will the Iraq and Afghanistan wars end? When will Iran attack Israel? How soon will congress tackle the unfunded liabilities.

Each different set of answers produces a different scenario. For example, one scenario might be that conservatives gain seats in the House and the Senate, but not enough to repeal Obamacare, that the courts invalidate parts of Obamacare but leave us wondering what to do next, that the wars go on indefinitely, that President Obama loses to Hillary Clinton in 2012, that Iran holds off on an Israeli attack, and that congress does very little to limit spending. Another could be that conservatives take back both houses of congress, Mitt Romney wins the presidency, Obamacare is repealed, the wars go on, Iran threatens an attack, and congress keeps on spending.

As I think through the possibilities, the results of each scenario are not as complicated as you might expect. In the short term, especially because of the FUD factor, the economy will sputter and flounder and recover a little and sputter again. Even though the government is spending, printing and borrowing like crazy, people are afraid to spend money. They hang on to the dollars they have. Employment remains high. In the short term, we can expect very low inflation or even deflation. In the short term, we would want to put our savings into things that increase in value during deflation.

In the medium term, the economy will continue to struggle along, but the bigger deficits will force interest rates higher. In any scenario I can dream up, I don’t see the government solving the spending problems quickly. As interest rates go up, inflation will start up again. In the medium term, we would want to put our savings into things that do well with moderate inflation. By “moderate inflation,” I mean 5 to 10 percent inflation per year.

In the long term, there is the chance the government could tackle its spending, but, if it did not, moderate inflation could turn into high inflation (10 to 20 percent) or hyper-inflation (20 percent per year up to 100% per day). If the government did not tackle spending and continued to print more and more money, we could go from moderate inflation to hyper-inflation almost overnight. In the case of hyper-inflation, investment decisions are the easiest. Pete

More to come.

We know how this ends. Part 2.

2010-08-02T14:46:00.000-06:00

If we believe in the Bible, we know how this world ends. Just when Israel is on the brink of annihilation, Christ will come and usher in 1,000 years of peace. At some point between then and now, a lot of bad stuff that will happen. The problem, which I think about a lot, is how to get my family safely from now to then.
Trusting “in the arm of flesh,” which I take to mean trusting in our own abilities and resources, or in the resources of governments, is a losing strategy. Still, it makes no sense to do nothing and simply hope God will save us from every inconvenience. The most logical course of action is, I think, is to trust in God, live good lives, stay cheerful, and prepare for whatever might happen.

So, what will happen? In addition to wars, earthquakes, plagues, and pestilences, there are bound to be a few inconveniences. The Internet might go down for a day or two, the cable could go out, and phone service might be spotty. The DVR might miss a few shows. Costco might stop giving out all those free samples.

In case you are wondering, I am not just trying to be funny. I want you to know that I know how ridiculous it is for me to try to avoid every difficulty. I know how foolish it is for me to think I could keep our savings intact in a complete financial meltdown.

What do I mean by a “complete financial meltdown?” The US dollar would become worthless, as would every other paper currency. If there is a severe shortage of food, precious metals would likely be worth very little. Any dollar denominated savings and investments would evaporate overnight. We would have to barter with what we have for what we need. Our survival would likely depend on how well we and our families, friends, and neighbors could work together to help one another. We would likely have to learn to live for an extended time without electricity, heat, air conditioning, or running water.

When could we expect such a meltdown? I have no idea. Lately we certainly seem to be intentionally speeding toward our national financial ruin, but the process could take ten or twenty years. The Zimbabwe dollar is still worth something. A fifty trillion dollar note is still worth 50 cents or so. We are so conditioned to value currency even when it has no intrinsic value that it will take some time for everyone to understand and believe how bad things are.

In the meantime, we can enjoy and perhaps even profit from our follies. As I quoted in the last email, “If you prepare for the end too soon, you could miss a lot of good trades.” I also like to compare our situation to a game of musical chairs. We might as well enjoy the music, even if all the chairs are gone. Pete

We know how this ends. Part 1.

2010-07-26T14:07:00.004-06:00

Early in July Marieta and I attended Freedom Fest in Las Vegas. Mark Skousen, who writes a financial newsletter I like to read, puts on the conference. He teaches economics (Columbia University), writes a lot of books, and loves free markets. His non-partisan, libertarian conference brings together all sorts of people. I was there for investment advice. Marieta came to keep me company.

We had a great time listening to all sorts of opinions. Here are a few:

“China has grown 8.2% per year over the last 40 years. Look to China.”

“China’s growth bubble is about to burst. Get out of China.”

“If government grows faster than GDP, you can’t get out of the [recession] box.”

“When your outflow exceeds your inflow, your upkeep becomes your downfall.”

“A water crisis is coming. Buy companies with water rights.”

“Stocks are having a 90% off sale. What’s not to like?”

“Ten times book value is as much risk as you want.”

“The Dow should be at 3000.” (Right now it is at 10,400.)

“A killer wave is coming.” (Recession is the first wave. Then the bargain hunters come in hoping for an upturn. The Government continues to tax and spend, resulting in a killer wave, even bigger than the first wave, which takes everyone out. This theory came with a chart of what happened to the stock market in the Great Depression.)

“Something for nothing societies eat everything, including next year’s seeds.”

“When it is dark, you can see the stars.”

“All paper currencies will fail.”

“You can’t hedge against a complete collapse, so we don’t think about it.”

My favorite quote was, “If you prepare for the end too soon, you could miss a lot of good trades.”

There were a few political presenters. One debate was about Israel. George Gilder, an author I like a lot, was very pro-Israel. The other guy represented a group of Jews against Israel. He argued that the Jews should leave Israel to the poor, victimized Palestinians. He also hated Christians because they believed all Muslims would go to hell. Marieta and I were stunned at the very emotional comments, pro and con, from the audience.

A trade show was part of the conference. You could buy gold (8 booths), invest in oil drilling (5 booths), become a Libertarian (3 booths), buy investment newsletters (6 booths), buy investment books (12 booths), move your money to an offshore bank before the US government starts taxing your transfers in 2013 (3 booths), invest in foreign currencies (4 booths), find a broker or money manager (5 booths), and buy DVDs of all the conference presentations. (My booth numbers are approximate.) There were a few more unmemorable booths.

To and from the show Marieta and I listened to Gerald Lund’s book about the Willie and Martin pioneer handcart companies. My 2nd great-grandfather Jens O Peterson and his wife Anne went in the Willie company. Marieta also had a ancestors in the Willie company, of which one died at Rock Creek Hollow and another died at South Pass. The wonderful book was a weird accompaniment to the investment conference. The conference was all about protecting your savings in times of trouble, and the book was all about people with no savings and no resources just trying to survive and remain faithful.

I have a few thoughts on investing, which I will share in the next post. Pete

It is hard to be nice.

2010-07-14T14:30:00.001-06:00

I try to be nice, but being nice is getting to be harder and harder.

If I disagree with liberal or progressing thinking, I am branded as disagreeable. If I disagree with President Obama, I am a racist for not giving him a chance. If I watch Fox News, I am a bigot. If I listen to Glenn Beck, I must be endorsing all hate speech. If I do not support same-sex marriage, I must hate all gay people. If I am against raising taxes, I am a tea-bagging, hate-filled, non-charitable excuse for a human being. If I am against killing babies about to be born, I hate all women. If I am against the new health care laws, then I support every conservative crack-pot who says or does the wrong thing. If I believe President Obama is a Socialist, I must be too angry, too partisan, too vocal, and too disrespectful of the Office of the President. If I do not support cap and tax legislation, I must want to ruin the earth and all the animals and people who live upon it. If I don’t support generous pensions to teachers, then I hate all children. If I want lower taxes and a balanced budget, then I must be a heartless, unfeeling, hateful rich guy who wants the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer.

Only if I say what is politically correct and support social justice for all can I be redeemed from my un-nice, unenlightened state. Only if I make my money with a green job, drive a GM hybrid car, shower in a trickle of water, give all my money to the government, rid myself of all fur and leather, stop using plastic bags, and never wash my driveway with water from a hose, may I call myself a good-hearted, kind, non-hateful person. Only if I rid myself of every non-liberal opinion may I call myself nice.

Am I ever allowed to disagree in a nice, non-disagreeable way? I guess I better keep that answer to myself. Pete

Independence Day and Hamburger Buns

2010-07-03T19:55:00.001-06:00

My daughter Julie called this morning and asked if we could bring 3 dozen hamburger buns to our family 4th of July celebration. Right then I wondered if we could find that many buns at the last minute. With millions of people purchasing hamburger buns today, I worried there might be a shortage.

After lunch Marieta and I went to Costco expecting and finding a very crowded store. I started to panic when I saw no buns in the bakery department, but Marieta suggested we would find some bakery items in another part of the store. She was right (of course). Near the freezer cases there were racks and racks of bread and buns. The hamburger buns were fresh, inexpensive, and plentiful. Because Costco sold the buns in bags of 2 dozen each, we bought four dozen. I was impressed. This whole capitalism thing is amazing.

I thought about how different it would be with a “planned” economy. A government commission would start meeting months in advance of the holiday. Studies would be commissioned and data collected. Resources would be allocated to produce exactly 1 hamburger bun for all persons over the age of 3 (who needs 2; we're all too fat). Literally hundreds of laws would be passed to insure that all buns were produced by union workers, that all ingredients were properly approved and inspected, that buns contain only organic, whole grain flour, that each bun had exactly 17 sesame seeds (some people don't like sesame seeds, so the seeds would be kept to a minimum), that each bun would conform to a certain texture, freshness, and size (forget the idea of an extra large, high calorie bun), and that all packaging would be biodegradable and recyclable. Millions of dollars in advertising would be spent to encourage us to line up early for our buns and to remind us how lucky we are to have the government protecting our right to have only non-trans fat oils in our buns. Prices would be fixed, profits would be limited, and special bun taxes would be added to provide buns for those people who could not afford them.

Many congressional leaders would be taken by surprise when they learned of the hamburger bun disaster. Shortages in organic flour and union bakeries would significantly slow the production process. Allocation problems would leave some areas of the country, notably Washington, D.C. and Chicago, with way too many buns, and other parts of the country with way too few. Protesters in support of birds and insects would stop a last-minute attempt to use non-organic flour. The average police person, used to spending most of the Independence Day weekend with his or her family, would have to work overtime to keep the bun lines orderly. Many people would spend hours in line only to learn that there were only enough buns for children and seniors.

The government commission would eventually apologize for the shortages, but it would not accept responsibility for forgetting to provide buns for hot dogs or for the arrests of those mothers and fathers who attempted to make homemade buns. Eventually the Supreme Court in a 5-4 decision would reaffirm our right to eat high-fat hot dogs and to bake our own buns, but that would not happen for almost a decade. The President would interrupt all fireworks displays to tell us that President Bush was responsible for all the bun problems (he had not thought to create a government bun commission sooner) and to announce a new bun stimulus program which would guarantee Independence Day buns to every American for years to come. He would also notify us of an executive order which would rename the 4th of July holiday to Government Appreciation Day.

Fox News would probably be the only network critical of the name change. The Tea Party movement would likely rename itself to the Kiss My Buns Party. Al Gore, completely misunderstanding the meaning, would likely try to join the party. A few friends of President Obama would lobby for a law requiring green food coloring in every Government Appreciation Day bun. The only company approved by Congress to make the GAD bun food coloring would be located in Chicago.

Happy Independence Day. Pete

This Doesn’t End Well

2010-03-24T16:37:00.000-06:00

I was helping one of my kids with a tax return and noticed an amazing refund. The husband and wife had approximately $1,500 withheld from their paychecks for federal income tax. Back when I was their age, getting back half of that amount would have been great. Getting the full amount back would have been incredible. So, how big was their “refund” this year? Would you believe $4,500?

As you might guess, they are not complaining, but I was shocked. Days later I am still in shock. The additional money came from tax credits (credits, not deductions) for having a child, for having jobs (making work pay), and for paying college tuition.

While I agree these are worthy, deserving, well-intentioned credits, I couldn’t help but think about where the government gets the money to be so generous. A quick calculation would suggest that $1,500 came from my kids’ withholding, $2,000 from the 50% of us who pay income tax, and $1,000 from China and others who have enough bad financial sense to loan money to the USA.

How can our government afford to be so generous when it has to borrow $2 for every $5 it spends? The standard answer to our debt is to say we will raise taxes on the rich. Unfortunately, raising taxes does not increase revenues.

An article entitled “Maryland’s Mobile Millionaires” appeared in the March 12, 2010 issue of the Wall Street Journal. The article explained how a tax increase on millionaires designed to increase tax collections had actually lowered the monies collected. For 2008, the year the tax increase was enacted, the number of millionaires in Maryland fell sharply to 5,529 from 7,898. So even though the tax rate went from 4.75% to 6.25%, revenues from millionaires fell by $257 million. Part of the decrease likely came because of the recession, but part of the decrease was due to rich people moving to states with lower tax burdens. Of the millionaires who filed Maryland tax returns in 2007, one in eight did not file a return in 2008.

This is just one example of how raising taxes on the very rich does not increase revenues. As taxes go up, a few rich people will move to another country, but most will make changes to their investment strategies. They just lower their income by moving more of their money to tax-free or tax-deferred investments. Then they wait for the government to learn again that higher tax rates produce lower revenues.

This doesn’t end well. The government will borrow more money in the short term and print more money in the long term. Taxes will go up for everyone. Eventually our lenders will quit lending. Our currency will be significantly devalued. Government services and entitlements will be cut. The pain will be enormous. We will learn again that good intentions may pave a road we do not want to travel. Pete

What We are NOT Getting

2010-03-08T19:58:00.001-07:00

I can’t stop myself from writing a few words about the current health care debate.

A little Internet research suggests that the US spends about 16% of our GDP on health care (GDP or Gross Domestic Product is the total of all goods and services produced in a country), while other modern countries with government-run health care systems spend closer to 10% of their GDP. These percentages are used as a strong argument for passing health-care reform.

What gets me writing is how little these numbers have to do with the bills before the US Senate and House. We are not choosing between a free-market system and a government-run system. We are choosing between a bad system and a very bad system.

Our system today includes private hospitals, health-care professionals, insurance companies, lawyers, government taxes, regulations and reimbursements, and lots and lots of paperwork. Obamacare simply adds more regulations, more taxes, more reimbursements, special deals for unions and certain states, and payoffs for drug companies, insurance companies and lobbyists (like the AARP) to get them to sign on to the changes. Obamacare is not a government-run health care system that will suddenly bring our costs down to 10% of GDP. It is our current system made worse.

Those in favor of the bills before Congress repeat a mantra that goes something like this: “Our health care system is broken, so we have to try something else.” The problem with this argument is that the change may not be for the better. If my hand hurts, for example, and if I have tried to stop the hurt using traditional methods, then I could decide to try amputation. It’s an alternative. It’s a change. It even might stop the pain. But it is also ridiculous. And it is also ridiculous to think that more taxes, more regulations, more paperwork, and more mandates will save any money at all.

I understand that we have problems with our health care system, but I don’t understand how Obamacare will solve anything.

A letter to the editor of the Deseret News

2009-12-08T11:12:00.000-07:00

Dear Editor:

Your publisher Jim R. Wall writes on page C7 of your December 7, 2009 Deseret News that a newspaper must “infuriate.” From my point of view, you are doing a great job of just that. Two recent articles illustrate my point.

On the Sunday, December 6, 2009 front page a headline reads, “Deep down, Utahns want health care reform bills.” That headline is derived from a poll asking us if pre-existing conditions must be covered (59% strongly agree), if most American’s should be required to have health insurance (27% strongly agree), etc. From the poll answers, your headline writer concludes that Utahns really want one of the reform bills before Congress to pass. I just don’t see the connection. That’s like asking us if we like food (I suspect that 95% would strongly agree), and then concluding that we would like to eat stale, moldy bread.

In Monday’s paper (December 7, 2009) a front page headline reads, “Climate finale in Copenhagen is looking up.” The article suggests that an international agreement to limit carbon dioxide emissions has a great chance of success. From my point of view, such an agreement would be a catastrophe, not a cause for celebration.

With our governments already spending so much more money than they have, I have trouble understanding how the Deseret News can be a cheerleader for the current health care reform bills or a carbon dioxide treaty. Both are certain to lead to increased deficits, more and higher taxes, and more government regulations. For someone like me who believes that a government needs to keep its spending under control, your paper truly proves itself infuriating.

W E Pete Peterson, an infuriated subscriber in Orem, Utah

Should We Care about Btus?

2009-12-02T23:34:00.000-07:00

For a few weeks I have been planning to write a message about Btus. It would have started something like this:

A Btu, or British thermal unit, is the amount of energy necessary to raise a pound of water one degree Fahrenheit. (A pint of water is equal to a pound of of water.) A Btu is equal to 252 calories, or about the amount of energy in two tablespoons of olive oil or a cookie. Put another way, you would need about 8 to 10 Btus to power your body for 24 hours. Utility companies typically talk about BTUs in “quads” or in quadrillions of Btus (a quadrillion is a trillion with three more zeros), or “therms” (100,000 Btus), which is the unit you normally see on your gas bill.

Why should we care about Btus? Well, it gives us a way to compare the costs of different types of fuel. To produce one million Btus, we would need 293 KWhs of electricity, 80 pounds of coal, 250 pounds of hardwood, 11 gallons of propane, 975 cubic feet of natural gas, 8 gallons of gasoline, 12.5 gallons of ethanol, or one-sixth of a barrel of oil. (A note on ethanol: It’s just plain stupid. You need 130,000 Btus to produce a gallon of ethanol, which is only worth about 80,000 Btus.)

And that is as far as I got. I was trying to compare the costs of producing and delivering different types of energy so I could explain which ones made the most sense. But as I was writing, I realized that the production and delivery costs of the different fuels were only one part of a very complicated energy puzzle.

In the last few decades, we have relied on oil for our transportation fuels (gasoline, diesel, and jet), coal and natural gas for our electricity, and natural gas for heating. We have enough natural gas reserves in the US to power everything for 200 years or so, and enough coal to power everything for 500 years or so. That leaves oil as our only “real” problem. Given that natural gas is clean and cheap, we could solve our oil problem within just a few years if we shifted to natural gas as our primary transportation fuel. (With electric cars, we are headed in that direction. We’ll burn mostly natural gas to produce the electricity to power the new cars.)

A natural gas solution would save us the $1 trillion or so it would take to upgrade to a “smart” electrical grid. We could eliminate the costly subsidies for wind and solar power. We also could forget about trying to find enough lithium for millions of hybrid and electric car batteries. We could go back to using corn for food. We could let other energy options compete in a free market environment. If all we had to worry about was our “real” problem, we wouldn’t need some sort of “moon shot” energy solution.

Unfortunately, we live in a world of speculators, special interest groups, and irrational tree huggers (I’m sure there are a few rational tree huggers, but most of them are immune to facts.). To this we add government intervention in the form of taxes, subsidies, tariffs, and regulations. We also have wars and rumors of wars and natural events like hurricanes. We also have to add-in dishonest and disreputable people pushing schemes like CO2 credits or manipulating markets. And then we have the fear, uncertainty and doubt that comes from the possibility of even more government intervention, more unrest around the world, more dishonesty, and any number of stupid decisions that might be made because of the possibility of global warming or other environmental concerns.

The energy world is even too complicated for someone like T. Boone Pickens, a billionaire who made his money in the energy business. He concluded that the answer to our problem would be to use wind power for much of our electricity needs and natural gas for our cars. He spent millions promoting his solution, but his plan requires the US government to come up with large subsidies for wind power and a smart electrical grid (one that could transport electricity more than a few hundred miles with a storage capacity for times when the wind isn’t blowing). Even with the help of an appearance on 60 Minutes, his holdings have lost billions waiting for the government to support his plan.

In a reasonable world, we wouldn’t have big energy problems. In a reasonable world, there is enough and to spare. But we don’t live in a reasonable world. In our world we have to save farmers, coal miners, and polar bears. We have to worry about CO2 parts per million and a temperature increase of 1.7 degrees derived from bogus data. We have to live with governments and crooks (am I being redundant?) and all those with special interests. We have made our world way too complicated for a few simple facts about Btus.

My New Favorite Pastime

2009-11-09T16:01:00.003-07:00

I am fascinated by the solar power monitor. As soon as the sun comes up, the solar panels start to make electricity. As the sun moves through the sky, the amount of electricity goes up. As clouds pass between the panels and the sun, you can see the watts go down and then back up. Our sky is partly cloudy right now, so the watts are going up and down as the sun peeks out and then goes behind the clouds. (If you look closely at the pictures on the right, you can see the batteries charged to 29.9 volts, sunrise at 07:03, and 2.9 kWH generated.)

I have not seen the watts go to zero when the sun is up and the clouds are thick. At a sunny 10:00 a.m, there are about 400 watts generated. If a hazy cloud goes by, the watts drop to 250 (see kW in second pirture). With a thicker cloud, the watts dip to 100 or so. At noon the system makes about 1000 watts if there are no clouds.

The solar panels made by REC are rated at 210 watts. With six panels, we theoretically should get up to 1260 watts. The installers told me the overall wattage could be as high as 1700. I’m not sure why there is a difference between the rating and the actual, but so far our system has gone as high as 1630 watts (see firs picture).

As you learned earlier, the refrigerator and freezer, according to the specifications, should be using 3 KWh each day. To measure what they are using, I found (with the help of a friend) this really cool gadget called a Kill a Watt. It is about the size of a wall plug and costs about $29. When you plug it into an outlet and then plug something into it, the Kill a Watt tells you how much electricity the device is using. After plugging both appliances into the Kill a Watt, I learned that they use 4 watts when the motors aren’t running, about 120 watts when one motor is running, and about 240 watts when both appliances are chugging away. In a 24 hour period, they together use about 3.5 kilowatt hours. I’m wondering if the ratings are inaccurate, or if the appliances have to work harder in a warm garage. Perhaps they will use less energy in the winter in a cold garage.

Overall the monitor reports that the system generates 5-6 KWh each day. I think that suggests the batteries need about 2 KWh per day to stay fully charged. Usually by noon or so, the system has already generated enough electricity to have to start discarding electricity. By 1:00 p.m. the system is making only 700 watts even though it could make 1200 watts. The system gets to 1500 only if the morning is very cloudy, and then the maximum wattage occurs about 2:00 p.m. Normally by 3:00 p.m. the system is keeping only 200 watts, even though there is plenty of solar potential.

If we spent a few thousand dollars more to hook the solar system into the power company, we could make use of all the energy generated in the panels. We could sell the extra KWh to the power company for 2 cents each. Like many things solar, it is just not worth it. I am hoping we can find other ways to use more of the energy without spending more money.

We are Live!

2009-11-09T15:59:00.002-07:00

The city inspector came this morning and signed off, so we flipped the switch and started generating electricity.

Right away the system monitor displayed all kinds of information, showing the electricity coming in from the solar panels, going out to the batteries, and the total KWh generated for the day. With the sun barely up over the mountains, the panels delivered 500 watts. As the sun got higher at 11:30 a.m., the panels delivered 1200 watts (1.2 KW). The panels are rated at 1700 watts, but the panels never got a chance to reach their limit. By the time the sun was at its height, the batteries were fully charged (they came charged) and the monitor cut back on the energy that went to the batteries. The system monitor acts like a traffic cop, preventing the panels from overcharging the batteries.

The freezer and the refrigerator are plugged into the system and are running well. When their motors are not running, the monitor allows 170 watts go to the batteries. When I can hear the refrigerator motor running, the monitor allows 300 watts to go to the batteries. When I can hear both motors running, the monitor allows 430 watts to go to the batteries.

I wish I could have measured the solar panel output when the sun was shining most directly on the panels. So far today, the solar panels have sent 4.7 KWh to the batteries, worth about 47 cents. The refrigerator and freezer are unlikely to use enough energy overnight to force the system to work at its maximum tomorrow. I might turn the system off tonight, so I can turn it on again at 1:00 p.m. tomorrow to see just how fast the panels can go on a summer day. On a sunny winter day, they should do even better.

The system came in a little under budget at $18,280. That includes 6 solar panels rated at 1.7 KW, an inverter/monitor rated at 2.5 KW, and 8 huge 6 volt batteries. In another message I will break down the costs and let you know how much we will get back from the government.

Batteries are Complicated

2009-11-09T15:55:00.004-07:00

When I started I thought it would be easy to figure out how many batteries I would need for the system. I wanted 20 KWh to cover the possibility of 4 cloudy days in a row. As it turns out, batteries are not rated in KWh, so you have to do some math. Batteries are rated in AH or Amp Hours, and the number of AH available depends on how quickly the energy is used and the temperature. If energy is used quickly, less electricity is available. When the temperature surrounding the batteries goes above 77 degrees, the capacity of the battery goes down. At 95 degrees, the batteries are only half as effective.

In our case, the installers suggested using 8 Trojan L16H-AC 6 volt batteries. These are big deep cycle batteries—11 5/8” long by 7” wide by 16 3/4” high, and they are heavy—125 pounds each. Deep cycle batteries are designed for putting out low amounts of electricity for a long time, while car batteries are made for putting out a lot of energy in a short time. Each are rated to produce 25 amps for 935 minutes, or 75 amps for 245 minutes, or 357 AH (amp hour) if drained over 5 hours, or 435 AH if used over a 20 hour period of time.

Since we are hoping the batteries would last for four cloudy days, the 20 hour rating is the most likely to apply to our situation. In theory, using the power over 96 hours would give us a little more electricity than the rated amount, assuming the garage doesn’t get too hot. So, if we multiply 435 AH by 8 (the number of batteries), we should have 3,480 AH. If you multiply amp hours by the number of volts in the battery (6 in our case), you get watt hours. 3,480 AH multiplied by 6 volts is 20,880 watt hours or 20.88 KWh. In theory then, we should have four days of reserve power.

The cost for each battery with shipping and sales tax is about $500. They are sealed, so there is no maintenance, but they only last for 5 to 8 years. We should probably ignore the fact that if we do save $182.50 per year, we won’t have saved enough money to replace the batteries. At least the technology is really cool. The monitor has a lot of lights and numbers and switches.

In the picture at the top of this post, you can see the closet where the batteries are stored. If you look at the bottom of the picture, you can see a glimpse of the batteries. The batteries are mostly covered so the grandkids can't touch them.

I’ll let you know as soon as we go live.

Almost Ready

2009-11-09T15:51:00.001-07:00

Our solar power system is installed. Once we pass the Orem City inspection, we can flip the switch.

The system includes 6 panels on our garage roof, 8 huge deep cycle batteries, an inverter (to covert the DC energy to AC), a monitor (to keep track of the energy generated, used, and stored in the batteries), an electrical outlet inside the house, two electrical outlets in the garage, a small fan to vent the battery compartment, and some emergency lighting.

The panels are rated to produce 1.7 KWh each hour the sun is shining and in the right position in the sky (A KW is 1000 watts, and a KWh is 1000 watts for an hour. For example, 10 100 watts light bulbs would use up a KWh in an hour. A slow cooker is rated at 300 watts, so that would use 1.5 KWh if you cooked with it for 5 hours. Note: All the math makes solar power a lot more fun.). We’re hoping the solar panels give us 15 KWh on a sunny summer day and perhaps 8 KWh on a sunny winter day. Our goal is to have available at least 5 KWh per day year round, even if we have three cloudy days in a row. (The batteries provide the power when the sun isn’t shining. The “Dummy” books suggested we store enough power for 4 cloudy days, but the solar guys talked me down to about 3. I still don’t know exactly how much energy the batteries can store and produce, because getting an straight answer about batteries isn’t easy.)

Although we wanted the solar power primarily for emergencies, we decided to hook up a refrigerator and a freezer to the system so that we didn’t waste all the electricity we could produce while we wait for the power to go out. A few weeks ago we noticed RC Willey had a sale on all its Energy Star appliances (Energy Star is a government designation for energy efficient appliances), so we went looking for a refrigerator and a freezer for the garage that would work well with the solar system.

We weren’t too concerned about prices, but we did look closely at how many KWh per year each appliance would need. We found a fridge that used only 400 KWh and a freezer that used 550 KWh. Unfortunately for the environment, none of the Energy Star freezers were frost-free, so Marieta vetoed them all. We ended up buying a freezer that needed 800 KWh. We found that the efficient appliances were relatively inexpensive (and came with government rebates), but they lacked any fancy options like an ice maker or filtered water.

If we assume we will have 1,825 KWh of power to use in a year, we should have more than enough to provide 1,200 KWh for the appliances. We’ll see. We did put the appliances are on a special plug, so that regular power will take over if the batteries run out of juice.

I’m still not sure of the final price of the solar power system, but it will be about $20,000. If we generate and use 5 KWh per day, we will save 50 cents each day on our power bill. If this were an investment (and not just a project to keep me out of trouble), that’s a return of a little less than 1%. With the government rebates (by the way, I would like to thank those of you who pay taxes for contributing to our solar power system), the cost could be cut in half and the return could be as high as 2%. I will let you know the actual amounts once we know them.

In my next message, I hope to explain more about the batteries. I thought it would be a simple calculation to multiply the amount of energy one battery could hold by the number of batteries in the system to find out the total stored power in the batteries, but it’s not that simple. I wish I had paid more attention in my chemistry and physics classes.

Learning More about Electricity

2009-11-09T15:49:00.000-07:00

After my last post about solar power, my neighbor Tom Dickson suggested I use propane instead of the sun. For a lot less money I could bury a propane tank in the backyard and run a generator whenever the power goes out. Tom is a really smart guy, and his solution makes a lot of sense.

Normally our electric company generates just enough electricity to match demand. If demand exceeds generating capacity by even 5%, we experience a brownout. If generated electricity exceeds demand, then the extra is usually lost. The power company has to have enough capacity to run all our air conditioners and appliances on the hottest day of the year and also carefully monitor customer usage to match moment-to-moment demand.

Electricity can travel only about 300 miles with our current power lines, so it is usually generated close to the place where it will be used. When you hear someone talk about powering the whole country with wind farms in the Midwest or solar farms in New Mexico, you also hear them talk about a “smart grid.” A smart grid would be one that uses new and more expensive power lines to create a grid that would allow electricity to travel across the county. It would also balance the solar and the wind energies.

Electricity doesn’t store well. You can charge a battery, compress air, or use “pumped storage” (water is pumped up into a large storage tank when there is excess electricity, and then the water is released to power a turbine on the way down when electricity is needed). These methods are very expensive, so it’s unlikely there would always be enough stored power to make up for many cloudy days or windless nights. A wind/solar, long distance transmission, and power storage system could easily cost $3 trillion. That’s about $10,000 for every man, woman, and child in the USA.

Usually a smart grid also includes putting devices in our homes that would automatically turn up the thermostats on our air conditioners whenever demand exceeded capacity. In other words, with a $3 trillion smart grid we could all experience hot flashes.

We typically pay 8-10 cents per KWh for coal, nuclear, or natural gas-based electricity. Solar or wind power costs more like 21 cents per KWh, even after federal and local governments subsidize half the cost. Even ethanol, which makes no sense at all, is cheaper than solar or wind power. As Tom Dickson suggests, propane at about 11 cents a KWh is a no-brainer.

So, why am I still interested in solar power? I guess I am trying to figure the whole thing out.

Thinking about Solar-Powered Electricity

2009-03-10T14:54:00.003-06:00

Marieta and I have at least a year’s supply of food. We have stored about 750 gallons of water (I am counting the hot tub). We have first aid kits, portable toilets, a water purifier, and about 100 100 hour candles. What we don’t have is an emergency power supply. We have a small amount of propane for the barbecue and a small amount of wood for the outside fireplace, but neither energy source gives us a way to cook for more than a few days. We have no emergency heating capability.

Lately I have been thinking about the possibility of using solar power during an emergency. I’m not trying to heat the whole house or power a refrigerator or a freezer, but I would like to see if we can use the sun to cook, to watch a small TV, and to perhaps use an electric blanket. To find out if this is possible, I bought Solar Power Your Home for Dummies and The Complete Idiot Guide to Solar Power for Your Home.

I read the Dummies book in an evening, skipping many of the parts I didn’t need to read. I skipped things like "Playing the Energy Game," "Building a Solar Home," and "Finding the Moolah to Do the Job." I also skimmed through many of the details about how electricity works. I quickly learned that building a small solar system is very complicated and expensive.

I also found a lot of information I didn’t need in the Idiot’s book. I was already interested in solar power, so I skipped the all the encouragement. I wasn’t looking for more information about conserving energy, and I didn’t want to learn anything about composting toilets (I am not making this up. You can buy toilets that connect to a composting box in the basement. With the right chemicals, the book explains that there is only a slight scent coming from the box). I quickly learned that solar power is almost more of a lifestyle than it is a source of electricity. You spend more time finding ways to conserve energy than you spend using it.

I was impressed with the small solar powered battery chargers. The chargers open up like a book to reveal the solar panels. With one the size of a small book, you can charge an iPod or a cell phone. With one the size of a large book, you can charge a laptop.

Also available are portable solar-powered generators. The battery and controller are about the size of a large picnic cooler. The solar panel is about the size of a door. With 5 to 6 hours of sun, you get about 1.5 kilowatt hours of electricity. If I understand things correctly, with 1.5 KWh you could run a 100 watt light bulb for 15 hours. Since you normally pay about 8 cents for every KWh, you are only making about 12 cents of power each day with a system that costs more than $3,000.

A built-in home solar system requires a solar panel, a controller, battery storage (expensive batteries, not car batteries), and an inverter. The solar panel collects the energy, the controller transfers the energy to the batteries (if you charge the batteries without a controller, you would overcharge the batteries), the batteries store the energy, and the inverter converts the DC or battery power to AC, the power you normally use in your home. The price for a home system starts at about $10,000.

A solar system requires special batteries. Car batteries are designed to produce a lot of power for a short amount of time, but solar power requires small amounts of energy over a long amount of time. The batteries wear out and have to be approximately replaced every 5 or 6 years.

There are a few of other solar-based options. Solar ovens are available for under $50. When the sun is out the small oven can get up 350 degrees. There are reading lamps and flashlights which can store the sun’s energy during the day for use at night. Solar lights with motion detectors work well for outside security lighting. A good website for solar gadgets is http://www.realgoods.com.

One statement in the Idiot’s book stood out for me: "There’s no such thing as a typical photovoltaic system." That is a direct quote from page 204, and it says a lot about the current state of solar power technology. It reminds me of when I was a boy and watched my dad put together a stereo system. He bought kits for the amplifier, the turntable and the speakers. He soldered everything together himself. After a few weeks of work, he played an amazing test record of two guys playing ping pong with the ping pong ball going back and forth across the room. The sound was wonderful, the technology amazing, but the average person had neither the money nor the know-how to put together a similar system.

The more I learn about solar power, the more I appreciate the electric company. Our electricity is cheap, easy-to-use, and almost maintenance free. The power goes out only occasionally, and, when it does, a small army of technicians fixes things right away. Although we tend to glorify solar-powered electricity, it is expensive, complicated, intermittent, potentially dangerous, and requires a lot of maintenance. Since I am still interested in solar power, I think it’s safe to say I am either a dummy or an idiot.

A New Venue

2009-03-03T16:02:00.000-07:00

A few weeks after we decided not to go to Italy, we met with our Stake President. He suggested we consider a full-time mission here in Utah. We would be able to serve, but also be able to live at home. We thought about it for a few days (we didn’t want to rush into anything this time) and decided not to decide. I guess you could say we were too discouraged and disappointed to make a good choice.

A week ago Saturday President Clegg from the Missionary Training Center in Provo asked us to come in for a visit. The next day he asked us to serve in a missionary branch at the MTC. Without thinking, we said yes. We will help the missionaries with their Sunday meetings (they have enough to do without having to prepare lessons and talks for Sunday), we will help with their orientation when they arrive, and we will help them in other ways throughout the week.

As soon as we finished talking to President Clegg, we rushed to church. Marieta was about to be sustained as a Sunday School teacher in our home ward, but President Clegg had asked that she not have another calling. While there I saw our Stake President in the chapel and told him we had accepted the call at the MTC. As I talked with him, I compared the office couple call in Italy to eating Brussels sprouts (good for us, but not something I expected to enjoy), the full-time mission call in Utah to eggplant (again, very good for us, but not something I would usually choose on my own), and the Missionary Training Center to chocolate cake (something I never turn down). He told me he felt very good about recommending us.

We’re so happy to do something we know we will enjoy. I feel a little guilty turning down two very difficult opportunities only to be rewarded with chocolate cake. We get to work together much of the time, we can see our grandkids almost whenever we want to see them, and we still have plenty of time left over to do almost anything we want to do. The call is for 2 to 4 years.

Sunday was our first day. We started by going to a mission conference in the morning. It was an incredible sight to see 2,000 young men and women in one room committed to taking the Gospel to all the world. They were beautiful and reverent and serious about what they were doing. After the conference we went to a fast and testimony meeting. We are assigned to the 38th branch (there are a total of 57 branches at the MTC). The missionaries are organized into districts of about 8 missionaries each, and into branches of 3 to 5 districts. Our branch has 3 districts now, and a 4th will arrive on Wednesday. The missionaries in our branch all go to Spanish-speaking countries, so prayers and hymns are in Spanish. Marieta knows just enough Spanish to understand the prayers and pronounce the words correctly when she sings. The talks are in English. We stayed for district meetings after the testimony meeting. We enjoyed every minute.

At any one time, the MTC has between 1,400 and 2,800 missionaries. Over 20,000 new missionaries come each year for 3, 8, or 12 weeks of training. Those going to English-speaking missions stay for 3 weeks, most learning a foreign language stay for 8 weeks, and those learning a few harder-to-learn languages stay for 12. Approximately 50 languages are taught in the Provo MTC. The missionaries in our branch stay 8 weeks. There are other MTCs around the world, but none are as large as the one in Provo.

I’m not sure why we can have the dessert before the vegetables, but we’re very grateful.

Thinking About Jonah

2009-01-30T15:12:00.002-07:00

Before we knew we weren’t going on a mission, we planned to meet Wendy and Bryan in Hawaii for a few days. Once we knew we weren’t going to Italy, we decided to go ahead with the trip. We’d been on such an emotional roller coaster, so we were ready to relax and figure out what we were going to do next.

As we packed, I mentioned to Marieta that I felt a little like Jonah. I had received a call to serve, but I was going off in the opposite direction. Would our trip turn into such a disaster that we would reconsider our decision?

On the morning of our flight to Hawaii, we were awakened by a call from Air France. Our luggage had been found and was headed home. A great start.

We were booked on a flight through Honolulu, because there had not been room on the non-stop flight to Maui. I thought I would check one more time to see if room was available on the non-stop, and amazingly seven seats had opened up.

Our Maui flight left on-time and the headwinds were less than expected. We landed 20 minutes early in a heavy rain.

Soon after we landed the rain stopped. I went to get the car while Marieta waited for the luggage. The car we had requested was ready and waiting. Meanwhile Marieta found all our luggage and met me at the terminal curb. Just as we had loaded our bags into the car, the rain started up again.

We encountered little traffic on our way to the hotel. The rain stopped as we arrived at the hotel. Our room was ready, even though we had arrived three hours earlier than expected. From our balcony window we could see a family of whales out in the ocean. They looked friendly.

We’re home now after a problem-free vacation. We have almost no idea what we’ll do next, except that I still refuse to take up golf. Love, Pete

Closed during Previews

2009-01-06T17:37:00.003-07:00

After a really great dinner with the Dunaways, we went back to our sad hotel room. Marieta was already stressed out, and then my heart went into A-Fib for the first time in months. We froze for most of the night. We hadn’t heard that we had to request the heat be turned on if we wanted heat.

I slept for about four hours and awoke about 4:30 a.m. to Marieta’s crying. She had been awake the entire time thinking she needed to get dressed and go directly home. I told her missions are like this. I remember my first few weeks in Uruguay when I was 19. I had nothing to go home to, but I wanted to go home. My suitcase at first went to Madagascar instead of Montevideo (the truth). I could hardly speak the language and everything about the foreign country was foreign to me. I couldn’t even find the apartment where I lived, because every building had the same grey stucco. But by the time I finished my mission, I would miss Uruguay much more than I had ever missed home. I explained that feeling miserable at first was normal.

That didn’t help at all. She told me she wanted to go home. Her anxiety and homesickness were too much for her. Just moments into the overture, Marieta, the leading lady of our production, developed a horrible case of stage fright.

Just after she told me we were leaving, she was able to sleep. Of course, I was wide awake. Would she change her mind in the morning? What would the Lord think about us backing out? What would everyone else think? I lay awake trying to figure things out. A mission is hard, but President Dunaway was really trying to make things as comfortable for us as possible.

I would have stayed, of course, if Marieta would stay. I was prepared to be miserable. I don’t go to church because I love it, I go because I should. I go because at the end of the day, I feel better doing what I think I should be doing. If I didn’t know the Lord heard and answered prayers, I would be watching football for sure.

I also thought about how much I love and admire my wife and want her to be happy. She is a good woman and has been a good wife to me. She gave me six really wonderful children and cared for them well. She has stayed strong when I was weak. She is careful not to give offense. She loves her children and grandchildren completely and continues to serve them, to pray for them, and to do her best for them. Surely the Lord loves her.

At 6:30 I couldn’t lay in bed any longer. I took a shower and put on my same clothes from the two days before. By now Marieta was awake and she was absolutely sure she wanted to go home.

At 8:00 a.m. she called President Dunaway to tell him she couldn’t stay. He came to our hotel on his way to church and was very kind. He hoped Marieta would at least stay until she could get a little more sleep. You could tell we weren’t his first missionaries who wanted to go home early.
After he left Marieta was still determined to go home. I called Air France and asked that our lost luggage be rerouted to our home. They had found one bag, but the other’s location was unknown. I called Delta and arranged for flights. During the taxi ride to the airport, I used the Internet on my phone to arrange for a hotel near the airport for our layover in Paris. Because we had paid for 8 nights in advance, the hotel manager in Opera gave us a credit balance for whenever we wanted to return to his hotel (not likely). When we knew President Dunaway was out of church, we called from the airport to apologize. When we were on the plane, Marieta started to feel better. As long as she doesn’t try to talk herself into staying, she is fine.

After everything that went wrong on the trip, it was only appropriate that it would be snowing at the Paris airport. We were held at the gate for four hours before we could leave. We happened to be returning with the same crew that brought us to Paris on Friday. We were easily recognizable since we were wearing the same clothes. They were happy to see Marieta not crying anymore. It was also appropriate that it would be snowing in Utah when we landed. It was a 3 hour drive home.

We talked with our Stake President, and he was also very kind. We will still get our call in the mail tomorrow, but by then he will have asked for a medical release for us. We will just have to figure out another way to serve.

Our Opera Overture

2009-01-04T04:12:00.002-07:00

Musicals and operas generally start with an overture. The lights start to go down, but before the curtain opens, the orchestra plays the overture. It’s usually an instrumental summary of everything which is to come, with bits and pieces of all the songs you’ll hear strung together. It gives patrons a little extra time to find their seats and the actors a little more time to get ready. I call this trip "Our Opera Overture" because we are coming to Opera, Italy, a suburb of Milan, for ten days to get ready for our mission. So far, you wouldn’t call our trip a comic or light opera. Things look pretty dark right now.

Our Delta flight from SLC to Paris left an hour late. That wasn’t too bad, because we picked up 30 minutes on the way and easily made our connection with Air France to Milan. The Air France flight left 30 minutes late, which gave us hope that our luggage would make it. We brought along 2 huge bags and a big bag, with stuff like bedding and towels and lots of clothes. Unfortunately, only one of our big bags made it, and the one that made it didn’t have any of our clothes. As we go to sleep, we’re hoping we’ll have a change of clothes to wear to church tomorrow. Air France gave us a couple of t-shirts and a few bath items, and that’s pretty much all we have to wear tomorrow if the bags don’t come.

Our mood wasn’t all that great along the way. Even though we’ll be home in 9 days, Marieta is already horrible homesick. Her dad used to say, "homesickness is the worst sickness," and right now Marieta believes he is right. From time to time on the flights she would cry and then start really sobbing. At one point the flight attendant wondered if I had done something to hurt her. I explained as best I could our desire to do what we think in our hearts is right and how at the same time our heartstrings are tugging us home.

After leaving the airport without our luggage, it didn’t help that the day was dreary. The taxi driver told us Milan has had 30 days without any sunshine. Everything looks grey and lifeless. We made the trip to our hotel in less than an hour, but our driver told us on a normal day it would take two hours. The Christmas holiday in Italy goes until January 6, so not many cars were on the road. The fare was 150 euros, which is pretty outrageous. We will have to figure out mass transit for sure.

Our hotel is sad and dreary as well. They advertise themselves as having 4 stars, but none of them are shining. We did get free Internet access for our 8 nights here. The problem is that no one has been able to use the Internet since the serviceperson fixed it on December 24. He let me try their computer in the lobby just to prove that the Internet was working (I couldn’t connect with my computer, even though I tried two different cables and a number of settings). With their computer running, I opened the browser. It took only 3 minutes to bring up the Google search page. So, the free Internet is a good news, bad news type of thing.

As far as I can tell, we are the only guests in the hotel. It’s clean and we have a little kitchenette in the room, but it’s not very inviting. The restaurant is closed until the 7th. I’m not sure if that is a bad thing. Of course, I paid in advance after learning about the free Internet access. It is very quiet here.

President Dunaway picked us up for dinner a little after 6:00 p.m., and that part of the day was very nice. Ruth fixed dinner, and it was authentic Italian and very good. We talked about what we would be doing and what needed doing. Just barely did Marieta not blurt out, "I want to go home."

So, the first little snippet of our overture is rather somber. If we could wish ourselves home in a moment, we would be there now.

A Leap not of Faith

2008-12-29T14:07:00.005-07:00

We still don't know for sure where we are going.

We submitted our papers on December 9, requesting we go to Italy. The papers went through a review process, and then went to the Missionary Committee on December 18. From there they were forwarded to the desk of one of the Apostles. As our luck would have it, the Apostle has not made a decision about where to send us.

We know this because the Italy Milan mission president has been calling the Missionary Committee every few days to track the progress of our papers. He has not been told which Apostle has the papers, but has been told that the General Authority in question has been out of the office and will probably not return until next week. So, we likely won't know our fate until the week of January 5.

Of course, we are in turmoil. We have sold two cars, spent hours learning Italian, settled finances, purchased large luggage, taken family pictures, and have moved forward at an unhesitating pace. Marieta was even released from her ward callings. We are truly hurrying up and waiting at the same time. Could we end up in Africa?

More unsettled is our upcoming trip. We have been planning to fly to Italy on January 2 for a week of training before the current office couple comes home. They leave on January 16, but they won't have much time in their last week to teach us very much. So, if we want their help, we have to go right away.

We can't even call this a leap of faith. We have faith the Lord will send us where He wants us to go, but we have no idea what He might be thinking. We talked with the mission president this morning, who talked with the Missionary Committee this morning, and everything points towards us going to Milan. Our probability of going is likely to be greater than 90%.

What do you think? Remember that Milan is cold, foggy, and rainy this time of year. Keep in mind that we can take a lot more stuff if we make two trips. Remember that much of the work we will do is very specific to Italy--helping missionaries with visa issues, paying bills, and handling leases. We also would be able to see our apartment, so we would have an idea where we can put Marieta's sewing machine. On the other hand, if we stayed home, we could save more than enough to money to ship anything we needed FedEx.

Should we go? Let us know what you are think we should do.

Love, Pete and Marieta

Not a Christmas List

2008-12-09T22:44:00.003-07:00

Our week passed in a blur of appointments, shots, interviews and arrangements. We’ve sold one car, purchased two items of luggage, put our finances in order, and started a list of things to do. The list is long enough that we use post-it notes on the kitchen door. There is so much left to do. And the list is growing.

Our last appointment needed to finish our application was a visit to the dentist. At 4:30 p.m. at the moment the dentist signed the evaluations, I called Bishop Cluff to tell him we had completed our application. Within moments he pushed the application to the stake level.

We took our signed evaluations to the assistant stake executive secretary so he could fill-in all the medical and dental information. By 8:30 p.m. the application all was ready for the Stake President. Minutes later, President Hughes, who happens to be in Japan today, sent an email to say he had reviewed the application and had passed it on to the missionary committee. After a week of furious activity, we have officially submitted our mission papers.

First thing tomorrow morning, President Dunaway will be calling the missionary committee from Italy to make sure everyone is on the same page. Although unlikely, there is a small chance the church could send another couple to Italy and send us to some other place. Marieta is very afraid we will end up somewhere in Africa.

We probably will not know our fate for certain for two to three weeks, but at least we can relax a little. Because we are trying to get to Italy as quickly as possible and because we cannot get a long-term visa until we have an official call in hand, we were in a rush. Now while we wait we can concentrate on our list. Hopefully, Marieta will have a little time to sew. Pete

Laziness Interrupted

2008-12-03T17:09:00.003-07:00

Sunday morning we trudged to the Stake President’s office to keep a 9:00 a.m. appointment. Marieta felt at ease, because we were both under the impression that I would get a new calling. Soon she shared my anxiety.

President Hughes explained that President Dunaway, our former stake president and current president of the Milan Italy Mission, called asking for help. The mission office couple was returning home in January, and he desperately needed a senior couple to serve in their place. The missionary department of the church let him know that he had little chance of receiving a replacement couple unless he could find a couple himself. The demand for senior missionaries exceeds the supply, and the available missionaries were needed elsewhere.

President Hughes explained that after a lot of prayer and thought he had come to the conclusion that he should ask us to consider accepting the call. Unlike earlier days of the LDS church when calls were announced from the pulpit and no one could say no, he was asking us if we would be willing to serve. We talked about our family, our health, our finances (Milan, Italy is one of the more expensive missions and missionaries pay their own expenses), and our commitments. We could only think of nine reasons not to go—our grandchildren Rylee, Samantha, Jacob, Barrett, Dani, Jonny, Ashley, Matthew, and Jane. They are so dear to us. Watching them learn and grow is such a joy.

We had a few questions, but we told President Hughes we would go. By Tuesday morning our questions were answered and our plans were settled. Assuming we pass our physicals, receive approval from the church’s missionary committee, and have our visas, we should be in Milano (notice the switch to Italian) in March.

We’ve shed some tears and lost a little sleep, but we’re going to go because we feel we should. We’re excited to help the missionary effort and to learn a little Italian, but we’re sad to have to say good-by. Luckily we’ll have the Internet and the tools it offers us to stay in touch for the 18 months we are in Italy.